Bristol were outclassed 32 - 14 last weekend by a Leicester side that had to win in order to have any chance to make the end of season play-offs.  But in what aspects were Bristol truly outclassed?  Yes, they were outplayed by a side that didn't play to its full potential but we saw enough to suggest that the younger players are capable of performing well in the Premiership.  We also saw that some of the ‘older' players are coming back into form, such as Dan Ward-Smith and Nathan Budgett.  Next season promises to be a hard one in many respects.  We will face a resurgent Northampton who have continued to recruit strongly with a squad that is, perhaps, marginally stronger than the current.  That Northampton will struggle in the way that Leeds have is very unlikely.  The struggle against relegation looks likely to be between Worcester, Newcastle and us.  In all honesty Newcastle, rather than Leeds, have looked the poorest side this season, particularly in the latter stages.  When all a coach can say about the performance of his side is that the battled well and put in a lot of effort, I always regard it as an ominous sign.  However, the contest on the pitch is not the only area in which next season promises to be hard.

The area in which Leicester, and other clubs, truly outclass Bristol is in the income they are able to generate from playing games at a home ground which they own or, at the very least, rent on favourable terms.  Currently Welford Road has a capacity of 16,815.  Essentially this capacity is utilised at virtually every game and generates an income greatly in excess of anything Bristol can dream of at the Memorial Ground.  The circumstances in which we ceased to own the stadium are probably familiar to most readers; but I, as a former shareholder, continue to believe that those circumstances were never properly brought to light.  In any event we now rent our traditional home from a landlord who charges such a high rent that when we play at the much derided Ashton Gate (hired from another football club) we make four times as much as we do from our ‘own' ground.  How then can we possibly compete with other Premiership clubs?  Or even with a club like Exeter?  Leicester have a ground that, when we played them, was largely filled with their own supporters (a consistently friendly group who shared their half time terrace picnics with us).  They spent their money in the ground, wore their tiger hats, sat of their tiger seat cushions and drank their tiger beer.  If this were not enough, Leicester plan to increase the capacity of the ground to at least 25,000.  They will even include terracing on three sides of the ground for those, like me, that prefer to stand.  You can have a look at the proposed design here.  I think the large stand on the left is the redeveloped Next stand.  In aesthetic terms it looks rather odd, but in financial terms it represents a big increase in income for what is already the richest club in the country.

In contrast our landlords are proposing to develop a typically soulless 18,000 all-seater stadium.  We will lose our traditional home, the ability to stand & watch games and will continue to be tenants at a ground we once owned.  Will the terms on which we rent the ground be better than the current ones and allow us to compete with the likes of Leicester?

More importantly, there are two significant short term questions that need to be considered.  Will the redevelopment actually take place and where will we play if it does (or even if it doesn't)?  Currently the redevelopment has been delayed for a short while to enable Bristol Rovers to play to post/pre season friendlies.  However, the previously appointed contractors have withdrawn and new contractors are yet to be appointed.  Furthermore, the financial model on which the redevelopment was based has been affected by the so-called credit-crunch and, some would suggest, was a flawed one in the first place.  These doubts, of course, put Bristol in a difficult position with planning its own future.  How can the club possible say where it will be playing over the next two seasons if its current ground might or might not be in existence?  The obvious conclusion is for the club to make its own decision without regard to the decisions (or not) of the Memorial Stadium Company.  This might mean that the club takes advantage of the break-clause in its lease and simply leaves on its own accord, plays elsewhere and leaves the Memorial ‘Stadium' to stew in its own juices.

If so, then where do we play?  The idea currently being floated is to play in Newport.  Conspiracy theorists like to suggest (hope?) that this is simply a red herring to distract supporters from the terrible truth that Bristol will be playing a the Wreck, but I think this unlikely.  We may well find ourselves playing in Wales even if the redevelopment of the Mem does not go ahead.  The poll on this website (which is statistically valid, although subject to some legitimate concerns) suggests that though people will follow their team to Newport they may well be selective about the games they attend and also that a significant number of season ticket holders will consider not renewing if we do play in Newport.  Once again this affects the income the club generates and its cashflow position.  Perhaps we will have a deal at Newport that is so vastly better than we get at the Mem that it will offset these potential problems?  Perhaps we will even attract support from Newport itself?  If this is so then we will certainly have to look at ticket pricing.  The cost of tickets in Wales is noticeably lower than that in the Premiership (it cost me about the same to go and see us play Cardiff in the HC, including travelling costs, as it would to see Bristol in the Premiership).  Of course this will again affect our income.

Difficult times lie ahead, whatever happens.  We can only hope that our club once again can overcome these challenges to emerge better and stronger.  The loyal supporters will have an important, perhaps the most important, role to play in how Bristol Football Club (RFU) survives, fails or flourishes in the seasons to come.  Maybe we won't continue to be outclassed by Leicester.

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