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Guinness Premiership Preview
By Lawrence Aggleton August 31 2008
Last season's Guinness Premiership (GP) was commonly held to be the best ever. After years of defence-first attitudes, attacks suddenly started taking centre stage. Bath are held up to be a good example of this, although for me the real change came about from Worcester Warriors.

A team who had previously ground out survival through a strong pack and resolute defence hadn't won a single game until the end of January, they won 6 out of 12 in the second half of the season based on attack led by Sam Tuitupou and Miles Benjamin.  

So, what can we expect this year? A lot has been made out of the ELVs that will be introduced, but in this correspondent's humble opinion, they'll make less of an impact than feared. They've been covered in more depth elsewhere, but for a quick view:  

1) Collapsing the Maul: Not as dangerous as some would say (collapsing scrums is far more dangerous for me), I expect more 5m scrums rather than the the ubiquitous kick to the corner.

2) 5m offside line for Backs at the Scrum: Will initially hurt fly-halves who like to stand flat (Jackson and James especially), but ultimately I don't expect it to have that much impact. Will benefit big, hard backs (Banahan, Tuilagi) who will get an extra 10m to build up their speed.

3) Kicking for touch after a pass back to the 22: should benefit teams with the skill to land bombs  just outside the 22 (c.f. All Blacks vs Springboks in Dunedin)

4) No number restrictions at lineout: Will benefit pacey back rows as they'll be 10m closer to the opposite fly-half than they would be in the backs.

5) Pre-gripping at lineouts: No change

6) Hooker has to be between 5m and 2m at lineouts: No impact

7) Corner flag no longer touch: A couple of more tries per year, but not that big an impact.  

The other key difference this year is the new agreement with England over player release. 32 players will be at England's beck-and-call. I think this is a necessary step to keep international rugby strong – and as international rugby remains the financial and viewing lifeblood of the game, whatever club fans may think, it should be welcomed. It will, however, penalise teams with a large number of internationally-qualified players. For me, this is the first (and easier) step that had to be taken. The next one – significantly harder – will be to create a season which doesn't pit club vs country matches. That will be a longer battle, but will come to head if Australia and New Zealand follow South Africa's lead in selecting European-based players. The inevitable scrapping of the EDF cup come the end of next season will help.  

Elsewhere, I think we'll see an evermore competitive premiership – Worcester are better than their 10 from last season and Saints are a definite improvement on Leeds. Away wins at The Rec, Kingsholm, Welford Road, Adams Park and Edgeley Park will be as rare as hen's teeth and the top four will be distinguished by their ability to pick up points at the Madejski, The Stoop, Sixways and Vicarage Road. Saints will need a good start (as we'll see later, the scheduling gods have been extremely kind to them), but life looks grim for Newcastle and Bristol.

Team By Team Analysis

Bath
Bristol
Glawster
Harlequins
Leicester
London Irish
London Wasps
Newcastle
Northampton
Sale
Saracens
Worcester

So, to sum up, predictions are:

Premiership:  

Gloucester (and Champions)  
Leicester Tigers  
London Wasps  
Sale Sharks  
Bath  
Harlequins  
Saracens  
Worcester
London Irish
Northampton Saints  
Bristol
Newcastle Falcons (and relegated)  
Heineken Cup: Toulouse ECC: Toulon

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