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Regional Predictions 2008-2009
By Paul August 23 2008
I don't think any season of regional rugby has been straight forward to predict so far. This Summer has seen significant upheaval, with both the Newport Gwent Dragons and Llanelli Scarlets making personnel changes a-plenty. Lyn Jones aside, the Arms Park and Liberty Stadium present a fairly settled picture.

Naturally with Cardiff Blues and the Ospreys both making the big jump into the uncharted territory of Heineken cup quarter finals few players or coaches have arrived or departed, which can be viewed as a sensible developmental step or alternatively as the two regions standing still. That said though either would be hard pressed to play quite as badly as they did, on that Sunday afternoon, back in April.

Moving back to Stradey Park or rather Parc-y-Scarlets when they move to their shiny new stadium, without the full story, it is hard to determine whether or not such drastic changes are justified in the new season. In contrast it has been the head coach at Rodney Parade making the decisions, which after such a poor season could only mean massive personnel changes, with solid non-welsh qualified players filling the ranks of disappointing Welsh talent.

Here's my predictions for the new season;

Cardiff Blues

Even with some less than show stopping signings, there was in patches significant progress at the Arms Park last season. Whether or not Dai Young can take his side to the next level predictability I feel will hang on their failure to recruit a top quality scrum half or tight head, it's a very ground hog-like sentence when it comes to the Blues I'm afraid. A lack of clinical finishing away from home hurt them, but with the likes Tom James and Jamie Roberts gaining more experience there should be a greater chance of them not falling away so much in the Magners.


Llanelli Scarlets

Startling, appalling or necessary. The axe or knife was used fairly ruthlessly by the Scarlets board. They need someone to step up and replace Dwayne Peel's influence, Silo Martens is not a bad replacement though. Doubts will linger over whether foreign signings David Lyons and Simon Mailing are quite the forces they once were in a light weight pack. Even with the new stadium and coaches effect last season was so dire it would be naïve to predict a massive improvement for the Turks.

Newport Gwent Dragons

There were plenty of dark days at Rodney Parade last season, with few bright spots in a horrendous season, that saw the Dragons barely reach the bare minimum expected of the. But flickers of hope have emerged following a rapid recruitment drive that as a whole appears to have added back bone to their squad. Tom Willis is a natural leader while in Marc Stcherbina they have a midfield general. But realistically Paul Turner has worked within a budget unlikely to allow his side to press for honours in any competition, first thing first they need to become tougher to beat, such is their standards for the season above.

Ospreys

Lyn Jones was a sitting duck after the Ospreys Heineken exit, even with their EDF success a side crammed full of so many Welsh internationals can ill afford to waste the golden opportunity that cam there way, and realistically Jones had taken the side as far as he could. But with no head coach there a little in limbo, especially with Justin Marshall's considerable influence leaving the region. But then again it could be argued that Marshall has become something of a negative influence. Tommy Bowe is a great signing, likewise the probable arrival of James Nutbrown from New Zealand, but on paper around international times they look too reliant on inexperienced youngsters, who in the short term are likely to struggle. In Europe and in the cup there is little to suggest they can't progress again.

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