SARACENS vs NORTHAMPTON SAINTS

SATURDAY, 27^th SEPTEMBER 2008 2.45pm

VICARAGE ROAD (live on Sky)

MATH PREVIEW

Saints at the Vicarage

Before the season started Big Jim stated that we would all know a lot more about our chances in the Premiership after the first five matches, in which case, with 3 matches played and 2 more to come we could be said to be halfway through the first section of the season.

So what have we learnt from the season so far?  Firstly and most importantly that Saints are capable of winning games in the Premiership, also and in no particular order that Jim’s new signings are bedding in well, the pack has more dog about it then the last time we were in the top league and the whole team is a united and committed unit.  On the down side we have also learnt that we are no closer to solving our issues around goal kicking and that we are still capable of throwing away games which should be won.

Saturday’s game with Sarries at the Vicarage Road Theatre of Dreams should reveal more about the squad and it’s capabilities.  When you think about Sarries games it’s easy to become carried away with the 58 / 17 drubbing handed out at the Gardens in February 2006.  However in reality Sarries have had the hex on Saints over the last couple of seasons:

Dec 2006 - Saracens 38        Saints 15

Nov 2006 - Saints 13        Saracens 35
Feb 2006 - Saints 58        Saracens 17

Nov 2005 - Saracens 28        Saints 22

This season Sarries have started slowly but got their season well and truly back on track when they demolished Newcastle 44 / 14 last week.  Considering that this is the same Newcastle side that was able to comfortably overcome Saints at Kingston Park on Sept 14th and the scale of the task becomes clear.  However Saints demonstrated that they have the required mental and physical resolve with a committed and determined win over Wasps and we must hope that they carry this into the game on Saturday.

Saracens have quality throughout the team, with beef in the front row and a back 5 containing Borthwick, Jack, Vyvyan and Owen, although it will be interesting to see if they continue with the experiment of playing Jack at 6 or return him to his rightful place alongside Steve Borthwick in the engine room.  Behind the scrum there is real class at half back with de Kock and Jackson and pace out wide through Haughton and Ratuvou.

Saracens slow start means they languish in 7th spot, however their ability to pick up bonus points in both victory or defeat has ensured they are only one point behind Saints.  In fact things are so tight that if results go against Saints this weekend they could find themselves slipping from the relative comfort of 5th place to the slightly precarious footing of 10th.  With this in mind a bonus point has to be the absolute minimum to take away from Watford.

Big Jim seems to have settled quite early on his strongest team and I would not expect too many changes from last weekend’s starting 15.  JC’s injury and the possible need to work a backup kicker into the 22 at least if not the 15 would seem to be the only areas of concern.  The pack has competed well so far this season and should remain unchanged.

15 Cap’t Bruce
14 Ashton
13 Ansbo
12 Downey
11 Lamont
10 Spencer
9 Dickson
8 Wilson
7 Gray
6 Best
5 Day
4 Lobbe
3 Murray
2 Hartley
1 Tonga’uiha

16 Smith
17 Shields
18 Stewart
19 Rae
20 Hopley
21 Foden
22 Myler

Finally the result.  Unfortunately I can see Saracens being on a roll after last weekend and they will prove too strong for Saints, however I would expect the boys to hang in there for a bonus point.

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